more realistics numbers in the roi calculator
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3 changed files with 207 additions and 130 deletions
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@ -8,34 +8,34 @@ class ROICalculator {
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conservative: {
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name: 'Conservative',
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enabled: true,
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churnRate: 0.02,
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churnRate: 0.025, // Lower churn with sticky managed services
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phases: [
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 50 },
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 75 },
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 100 },
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 150 }
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 15 }, // 5 new clients × 3 instances each
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 24 }, // 6 new clients × 4 instances (growth + expansion)
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 35 }, // 7 new clients × 5 instances (mature usage)
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 40 } // 8 new clients × 5 instances
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]
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},
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moderate: {
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name: 'Moderate',
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enabled: true,
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churnRate: 0.03,
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churnRate: 0.03, // Balanced churn with growth
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phases: [
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 100 },
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 200 },
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 300 },
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 400 }
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 25 }, // 8 new clients × 3 instances each
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 45 }, // 10 new clients × 4.5 instances (expansion)
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 70 }, // 12 new clients × 6 instances (diverse services)
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 90 } // 15 new clients × 6 instances
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]
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},
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aggressive: {
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name: 'Aggressive',
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enabled: true,
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churnRate: 0.05,
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churnRate: 0.035, // Slightly higher churn with rapid growth
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phases: [
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 200 },
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 400 },
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 600 },
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 800 }
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 40 }, // 12 new clients × 3.5 instances
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 80 }, // 16 new clients × 5 instances (viral growth)
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 120 }, // 20 new clients × 6 instances (full adoption)
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 150 } // 25 new clients × 6 instances
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]
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}
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};
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@ -134,8 +134,8 @@ class ROICalculator {
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}
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}
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// Enhanced investment scaling factor (only for direct investment)
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// Exponential scaling provides strong incentives for larger investments
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// Market-realistic investment scaling factor (only for direct investment)
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// Conservative scaling based on industry standards and economies of scale
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const baseInvestment = 500000;
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let investmentScaleFactor;
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let churnReductionFactor;
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@ -148,47 +148,46 @@ class ROICalculator {
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revenueMultiplier = 1.0;
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acceleratedBreakEvenFactor = 1.0;
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} else {
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// Exponential scaling for better ROI at higher investments
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// Conservative linear scaling with market-realistic caps
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if (inputs.investmentAmount <= baseInvestment) {
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investmentScaleFactor = inputs.investmentAmount / baseInvestment;
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} else if (inputs.investmentAmount <= 1000000) {
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// 500k to 1M: Exponential scaling (1.0x to 2.2x)
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// 500k to 1M: Moderate linear scaling (1.0x to 1.5x)
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const ratio = inputs.investmentAmount / baseInvestment;
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investmentScaleFactor = Math.pow(ratio, 1.2);
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investmentScaleFactor = 1.0 + ((ratio - 1.0) * 0.5);
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} else if (inputs.investmentAmount <= 1500000) {
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// 1M to 1.5M: Enhanced exponential scaling (2.2x to 3.5x)
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const ratio = inputs.investmentAmount / baseInvestment;
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investmentScaleFactor = Math.pow(ratio, 1.3);
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// 1M to 1.5M: Conservative scaling (1.5x to 1.8x)
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const progress = (inputs.investmentAmount - 1000000) / 500000;
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investmentScaleFactor = 1.5 + (progress * 0.3);
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} else {
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// 1.5M to 2M: Maximum exponential scaling (3.5x to 5.0x)
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const ratio = inputs.investmentAmount / baseInvestment;
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investmentScaleFactor = Math.pow(ratio, 1.4);
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// 1.5M to 2M: Maximum realistic scaling (1.8x to 2.0x)
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const progress = (inputs.investmentAmount - 1500000) / 500000;
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investmentScaleFactor = 1.8 + (progress * 0.2);
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}
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// Revenue multipliers for large investments (economies of scale)
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// Market-sustainable revenue premiums (10-20% max)
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if (inputs.investmentAmount >= 2000000) {
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revenueMultiplier = 1.6; // 60% premium per instance
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revenueMultiplier = 1.2; // 20% premium - maximum sustainable
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} else if (inputs.investmentAmount >= 1500000) {
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revenueMultiplier = 1.4; // 40% premium per instance
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revenueMultiplier = 1.15; // 15% premium
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} else if (inputs.investmentAmount >= 1000000) {
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revenueMultiplier = 1.2; // 20% premium per instance
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revenueMultiplier = 1.1; // 10% premium
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} else {
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revenueMultiplier = 1.0; // No premium
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}
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// Accelerated break-even for large investments
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// Modest break-even improvements (not dramatic acceleration)
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if (inputs.investmentAmount >= 1500000) {
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acceleratedBreakEvenFactor = 1.4; // 40% faster break-even
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acceleratedBreakEvenFactor = 1.15; // 15% faster break-even
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} else if (inputs.investmentAmount >= 1000000) {
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acceleratedBreakEvenFactor = 1.2; // 20% faster break-even
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acceleratedBreakEvenFactor = 1.1; // 10% faster break-even
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} else {
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acceleratedBreakEvenFactor = 1.0; // Standard break-even
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}
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// Enhanced churn reduction with aggressive scaling
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// Higher investment = significantly better customer success = much lower churn
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// Realistic churn reduction based on customer success investments
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const churnReductionRatio = Math.min((inputs.investmentAmount - baseInvestment) / 1500000, 1.0);
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churnReductionFactor = Math.max(0.4, 1 - (churnReductionRatio * 0.6)); // Up to 60% churn reduction
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churnReductionFactor = Math.max(0.75, 1 - (churnReductionRatio * 0.25)); // Up to 25% churn reduction
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}
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// Calculate adjusted churn rate with investment-based reduction
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@ -201,18 +200,18 @@ class ROICalculator {
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let cumulativeServalaRevenue = 0;
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let breakEvenMonth = null;
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// Calculate enhanced grace period based on investment size
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// Calculate commercially viable grace period based on investment size
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const baseGracePeriod = inputs.gracePeriod;
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let gracePeriodBonus;
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if (inputs.investmentAmount >= 1500000) {
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gracePeriodBonus = 12; // 12 months extra for large investments
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gracePeriodBonus = 3; // 3 months extra for large investments
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} else if (inputs.investmentAmount >= 1000000) {
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gracePeriodBonus = 6; // 6 months extra for medium investments
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gracePeriodBonus = 2; // 2 months extra for medium investments
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} else {
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gracePeriodBonus = Math.floor((inputs.investmentAmount - baseInvestment) / 250000);
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gracePeriodBonus = Math.floor((inputs.investmentAmount - baseInvestment) / 500000); // More conservative bonus calculation
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}
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const effectiveGracePeriod = inputs.investmentModel === 'loan' ? 0 :
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Math.min(baseGracePeriod + gracePeriodBonus, Math.floor(totalMonths * 0.6)); // Up to 60% of timeframe
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Math.min(baseGracePeriod + gracePeriodBonus, 6); // Maximum 6 months grace period
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// Track baseline performance for performance bonuses (direct investment only)
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let baselineInstances = 0; // Will track expected instances without performance scaling
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@ -262,16 +261,16 @@ class ROICalculator {
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const coreRevenue = baseCoreRevenue * revenueMultiplier;
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monthlyRevenue = serviceRevenue;
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// Calculate scaled performance bonus based on investment size
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// Calculate realistic performance bonus based on investment size
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let maxPerformanceBonus;
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if (inputs.investmentAmount >= 2000000) {
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maxPerformanceBonus = 0.35; // 35% max bonus for largest investments
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maxPerformanceBonus = 0.15; // 15% max bonus for largest investments
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} else if (inputs.investmentAmount >= 1500000) {
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maxPerformanceBonus = 0.25; // 25% max bonus for large investments
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maxPerformanceBonus = 0.12; // 12% max bonus for large investments
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} else if (inputs.investmentAmount >= 1000000) {
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maxPerformanceBonus = 0.20; // 20% max bonus for medium investments
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maxPerformanceBonus = 0.10; // 10% max bonus for medium investments
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} else {
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maxPerformanceBonus = 0.15; // 15% max bonus for base investments
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maxPerformanceBonus = 0.08; // 8% max bonus for base investments
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}
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// Calculate performance bonus if CSP exceeds baseline expectations
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@ -393,9 +392,9 @@ class ROICalculator {
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revenueMultiplier: revenueMultiplier,
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acceleratedBreakEvenFactor: acceleratedBreakEvenFactor,
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maxPerformanceBonus: inputs.investmentModel === 'direct' ?
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(inputs.investmentAmount >= 2000000 ? 35 :
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inputs.investmentAmount >= 1500000 ? 25 :
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inputs.investmentAmount >= 1000000 ? 20 : 15) : 0,
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(inputs.investmentAmount >= 2000000 ? 15 :
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inputs.investmentAmount >= 1500000 ? 12 :
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inputs.investmentAmount >= 1000000 ? 10 : 8) : 0,
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adjustedChurnRate: adjustedChurnRate * 100,
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performanceMultiplier: baselineInstances > 0 ? (currentInstances / baselineInstances) : 1.0
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};
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@ -132,55 +132,55 @@ class ROICalculatorApp {
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const investmentAmount = inputs.investmentAmount;
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const baseInvestment = 500000;
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// Calculate instance scaling factor
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// Calculate market-realistic instance scaling factor
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let scalingFactor;
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if (investmentAmount <= baseInvestment) {
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scalingFactor = investmentAmount / baseInvestment;
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} else if (investmentAmount <= 1000000) {
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const ratio = investmentAmount / baseInvestment;
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scalingFactor = Math.pow(ratio, 1.2);
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scalingFactor = 1.0 + ((ratio - 1.0) * 0.5); // Linear scaling to 1.5x
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} else if (investmentAmount <= 1500000) {
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const ratio = investmentAmount / baseInvestment;
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scalingFactor = Math.pow(ratio, 1.3);
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const progress = (investmentAmount - 1000000) / 500000;
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scalingFactor = 1.5 + (progress * 0.3); // Up to 1.8x
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} else {
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const ratio = investmentAmount / baseInvestment;
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scalingFactor = Math.pow(ratio, 1.4);
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const progress = (investmentAmount - 1500000) / 500000;
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scalingFactor = 1.8 + (progress * 0.2); // Max 2.0x
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}
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// Calculate revenue premium
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// Calculate sustainable revenue premium
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let revenuePremium;
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if (investmentAmount >= 2000000) {
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revenuePremium = 60;
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revenuePremium = 20; // Maximum 20% premium
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} else if (investmentAmount >= 1500000) {
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revenuePremium = 40;
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revenuePremium = 15; // 15% premium
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} else if (investmentAmount >= 1000000) {
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revenuePremium = 20;
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revenuePremium = 10; // 10% premium
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} else {
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revenuePremium = 0;
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}
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// Calculate grace period
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// Calculate commercially viable grace period
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const baseGracePeriod = inputs.gracePeriod;
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let gracePeriodBonus;
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if (investmentAmount >= 1500000) {
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gracePeriodBonus = 12;
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gracePeriodBonus = 3; // 3 months max bonus
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} else if (investmentAmount >= 1000000) {
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gracePeriodBonus = 6;
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gracePeriodBonus = 2; // 2 months bonus
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} else {
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gracePeriodBonus = Math.floor((investmentAmount - baseInvestment) / 250000);
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gracePeriodBonus = Math.floor((investmentAmount - baseInvestment) / 500000);
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}
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const totalGracePeriod = Math.max(0, baseGracePeriod + gracePeriodBonus);
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const totalGracePeriod = Math.min(Math.max(0, baseGracePeriod + gracePeriodBonus), 6); // Max 6 months
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// Calculate max performance bonus
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// Calculate realistic max performance bonus
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let maxBonus;
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if (investmentAmount >= 2000000) {
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maxBonus = 35;
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maxBonus = 15; // 15% max bonus
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} else if (investmentAmount >= 1500000) {
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maxBonus = 25;
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maxBonus = 12; // 12% max bonus
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} else if (investmentAmount >= 1000000) {
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maxBonus = 20;
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maxBonus = 10; // 10% max bonus
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} else {
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maxBonus = 15;
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maxBonus = 8; // 8% max bonus
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}
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// Update UI elements
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@ -411,49 +411,49 @@ class ROICalculatorApp {
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if (!this.calculator) return;
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// Reset Conservative
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this.calculator.scenarios.conservative.churnRate = 0.02;
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this.calculator.scenarios.conservative.churnRate = 0.025;
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this.calculator.scenarios.conservative.phases = [
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 50 },
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 75 },
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 100 },
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 150 }
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 15 },
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 24 },
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 35 },
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 40 }
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];
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// Reset Moderate
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this.calculator.scenarios.moderate.churnRate = 0.03;
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this.calculator.scenarios.moderate.phases = [
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 100 },
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 200 },
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 300 },
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 400 }
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 25 },
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 45 },
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 70 },
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 90 }
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];
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// Reset Aggressive
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this.calculator.scenarios.aggressive.churnRate = 0.05;
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this.calculator.scenarios.aggressive.churnRate = 0.035;
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this.calculator.scenarios.aggressive.phases = [
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 200 },
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 400 },
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 600 },
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 800 }
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 40 },
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{ months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 80 },
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 120 },
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{ months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 150 }
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];
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// Update UI inputs
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const inputMappings = [
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['conservative-churn', '2.0'],
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['conservative-phase-0', '50'],
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['conservative-phase-1', '75'],
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['conservative-phase-2', '100'],
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['conservative-phase-3', '150'],
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['conservative-churn', '2.5'],
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['conservative-phase-0', '15'],
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['conservative-phase-1', '24'],
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['conservative-phase-2', '35'],
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['conservative-phase-3', '40'],
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['moderate-churn', '3.0'],
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['moderate-phase-0', '100'],
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['moderate-phase-1', '200'],
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['moderate-phase-2', '300'],
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['moderate-phase-3', '400'],
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['aggressive-churn', '5.0'],
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['aggressive-phase-0', '200'],
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['aggressive-phase-1', '400'],
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['aggressive-phase-2', '600'],
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['aggressive-phase-3', '800']
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['moderate-phase-0', '25'],
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['moderate-phase-1', '45'],
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['moderate-phase-2', '70'],
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['moderate-phase-3', '90'],
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['aggressive-churn', '3.5'],
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['aggressive-phase-0', '40'],
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['aggressive-phase-1', '80'],
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['aggressive-phase-2', '120'],
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['aggressive-phase-3', '150']
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];
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inputMappings.forEach(([id, value]) => {
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