From 86d4b6412edaff9826695cf96e22b3d70437772d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Tobias Brunner Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2025 08:50:02 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] more realistics numbers in the roi calculator --- .../js/roi-calculator/calculator-core.js | 97 ++++++------ .../js/roi-calculator/roi-calculator-app.js | 96 ++++++------ .../calculator/roi_calculator_help.html | 144 ++++++++++++++---- 3 files changed, 207 insertions(+), 130 deletions(-) diff --git a/hub/services/static/js/roi-calculator/calculator-core.js b/hub/services/static/js/roi-calculator/calculator-core.js index 8c2feb8..c326121 100644 --- a/hub/services/static/js/roi-calculator/calculator-core.js +++ b/hub/services/static/js/roi-calculator/calculator-core.js @@ -8,34 +8,34 @@ class ROICalculator { conservative: { name: 'Conservative', enabled: true, - churnRate: 0.02, + churnRate: 0.025, // Lower churn with sticky managed services phases: [ - { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 50 }, - { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 75 }, - { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 100 }, - { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 150 } + { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 15 }, // 5 new clients × 3 instances each + { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 24 }, // 6 new clients × 4 instances (growth + expansion) + { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 35 }, // 7 new clients × 5 instances (mature usage) + { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 40 } // 8 new clients × 5 instances ] }, moderate: { name: 'Moderate', enabled: true, - churnRate: 0.03, + churnRate: 0.03, // Balanced churn with growth phases: [ - { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 100 }, - { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 200 }, - { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 300 }, - { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 400 } + { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 25 }, // 8 new clients × 3 instances each + { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 45 }, // 10 new clients × 4.5 instances (expansion) + { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 70 }, // 12 new clients × 6 instances (diverse services) + { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 90 } // 15 new clients × 6 instances ] }, aggressive: { name: 'Aggressive', enabled: true, - churnRate: 0.05, + churnRate: 0.035, // Slightly higher churn with rapid growth phases: [ - { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 200 }, - { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 400 }, - { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 600 }, - { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 800 } + { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 40 }, // 12 new clients × 3.5 instances + { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 80 }, // 16 new clients × 5 instances (viral growth) + { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 120 }, // 20 new clients × 6 instances (full adoption) + { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 150 } // 25 new clients × 6 instances ] } }; @@ -134,8 +134,8 @@ class ROICalculator { } } - // Enhanced investment scaling factor (only for direct investment) - // Exponential scaling provides strong incentives for larger investments + // Market-realistic investment scaling factor (only for direct investment) + // Conservative scaling based on industry standards and economies of scale const baseInvestment = 500000; let investmentScaleFactor; let churnReductionFactor; @@ -148,47 +148,46 @@ class ROICalculator { revenueMultiplier = 1.0; acceleratedBreakEvenFactor = 1.0; } else { - // Exponential scaling for better ROI at higher investments + // Conservative linear scaling with market-realistic caps if (inputs.investmentAmount <= baseInvestment) { investmentScaleFactor = inputs.investmentAmount / baseInvestment; } else if (inputs.investmentAmount <= 1000000) { - // 500k to 1M: Exponential scaling (1.0x to 2.2x) + // 500k to 1M: Moderate linear scaling (1.0x to 1.5x) const ratio = inputs.investmentAmount / baseInvestment; - investmentScaleFactor = Math.pow(ratio, 1.2); + investmentScaleFactor = 1.0 + ((ratio - 1.0) * 0.5); } else if (inputs.investmentAmount <= 1500000) { - // 1M to 1.5M: Enhanced exponential scaling (2.2x to 3.5x) - const ratio = inputs.investmentAmount / baseInvestment; - investmentScaleFactor = Math.pow(ratio, 1.3); + // 1M to 1.5M: Conservative scaling (1.5x to 1.8x) + const progress = (inputs.investmentAmount - 1000000) / 500000; + investmentScaleFactor = 1.5 + (progress * 0.3); } else { - // 1.5M to 2M: Maximum exponential scaling (3.5x to 5.0x) - const ratio = inputs.investmentAmount / baseInvestment; - investmentScaleFactor = Math.pow(ratio, 1.4); + // 1.5M to 2M: Maximum realistic scaling (1.8x to 2.0x) + const progress = (inputs.investmentAmount - 1500000) / 500000; + investmentScaleFactor = 1.8 + (progress * 0.2); } - // Revenue multipliers for large investments (economies of scale) + // Market-sustainable revenue premiums (10-20% max) if (inputs.investmentAmount >= 2000000) { - revenueMultiplier = 1.6; // 60% premium per instance + revenueMultiplier = 1.2; // 20% premium - maximum sustainable } else if (inputs.investmentAmount >= 1500000) { - revenueMultiplier = 1.4; // 40% premium per instance + revenueMultiplier = 1.15; // 15% premium } else if (inputs.investmentAmount >= 1000000) { - revenueMultiplier = 1.2; // 20% premium per instance + revenueMultiplier = 1.1; // 10% premium } else { revenueMultiplier = 1.0; // No premium } - // Accelerated break-even for large investments + // Modest break-even improvements (not dramatic acceleration) if (inputs.investmentAmount >= 1500000) { - acceleratedBreakEvenFactor = 1.4; // 40% faster break-even + acceleratedBreakEvenFactor = 1.15; // 15% faster break-even } else if (inputs.investmentAmount >= 1000000) { - acceleratedBreakEvenFactor = 1.2; // 20% faster break-even + acceleratedBreakEvenFactor = 1.1; // 10% faster break-even } else { acceleratedBreakEvenFactor = 1.0; // Standard break-even } - // Enhanced churn reduction with aggressive scaling - // Higher investment = significantly better customer success = much lower churn + // Realistic churn reduction based on customer success investments const churnReductionRatio = Math.min((inputs.investmentAmount - baseInvestment) / 1500000, 1.0); - churnReductionFactor = Math.max(0.4, 1 - (churnReductionRatio * 0.6)); // Up to 60% churn reduction + churnReductionFactor = Math.max(0.75, 1 - (churnReductionRatio * 0.25)); // Up to 25% churn reduction } // Calculate adjusted churn rate with investment-based reduction @@ -201,18 +200,18 @@ class ROICalculator { let cumulativeServalaRevenue = 0; let breakEvenMonth = null; - // Calculate enhanced grace period based on investment size + // Calculate commercially viable grace period based on investment size const baseGracePeriod = inputs.gracePeriod; let gracePeriodBonus; if (inputs.investmentAmount >= 1500000) { - gracePeriodBonus = 12; // 12 months extra for large investments + gracePeriodBonus = 3; // 3 months extra for large investments } else if (inputs.investmentAmount >= 1000000) { - gracePeriodBonus = 6; // 6 months extra for medium investments + gracePeriodBonus = 2; // 2 months extra for medium investments } else { - gracePeriodBonus = Math.floor((inputs.investmentAmount - baseInvestment) / 250000); + gracePeriodBonus = Math.floor((inputs.investmentAmount - baseInvestment) / 500000); // More conservative bonus calculation } const effectiveGracePeriod = inputs.investmentModel === 'loan' ? 0 : - Math.min(baseGracePeriod + gracePeriodBonus, Math.floor(totalMonths * 0.6)); // Up to 60% of timeframe + Math.min(baseGracePeriod + gracePeriodBonus, 6); // Maximum 6 months grace period // Track baseline performance for performance bonuses (direct investment only) let baselineInstances = 0; // Will track expected instances without performance scaling @@ -262,16 +261,16 @@ class ROICalculator { const coreRevenue = baseCoreRevenue * revenueMultiplier; monthlyRevenue = serviceRevenue; - // Calculate scaled performance bonus based on investment size + // Calculate realistic performance bonus based on investment size let maxPerformanceBonus; if (inputs.investmentAmount >= 2000000) { - maxPerformanceBonus = 0.35; // 35% max bonus for largest investments + maxPerformanceBonus = 0.15; // 15% max bonus for largest investments } else if (inputs.investmentAmount >= 1500000) { - maxPerformanceBonus = 0.25; // 25% max bonus for large investments + maxPerformanceBonus = 0.12; // 12% max bonus for large investments } else if (inputs.investmentAmount >= 1000000) { - maxPerformanceBonus = 0.20; // 20% max bonus for medium investments + maxPerformanceBonus = 0.10; // 10% max bonus for medium investments } else { - maxPerformanceBonus = 0.15; // 15% max bonus for base investments + maxPerformanceBonus = 0.08; // 8% max bonus for base investments } // Calculate performance bonus if CSP exceeds baseline expectations @@ -393,9 +392,9 @@ class ROICalculator { revenueMultiplier: revenueMultiplier, acceleratedBreakEvenFactor: acceleratedBreakEvenFactor, maxPerformanceBonus: inputs.investmentModel === 'direct' ? - (inputs.investmentAmount >= 2000000 ? 35 : - inputs.investmentAmount >= 1500000 ? 25 : - inputs.investmentAmount >= 1000000 ? 20 : 15) : 0, + (inputs.investmentAmount >= 2000000 ? 15 : + inputs.investmentAmount >= 1500000 ? 12 : + inputs.investmentAmount >= 1000000 ? 10 : 8) : 0, adjustedChurnRate: adjustedChurnRate * 100, performanceMultiplier: baselineInstances > 0 ? (currentInstances / baselineInstances) : 1.0 }; diff --git a/hub/services/static/js/roi-calculator/roi-calculator-app.js b/hub/services/static/js/roi-calculator/roi-calculator-app.js index e5991ef..b90802a 100644 --- a/hub/services/static/js/roi-calculator/roi-calculator-app.js +++ b/hub/services/static/js/roi-calculator/roi-calculator-app.js @@ -132,55 +132,55 @@ class ROICalculatorApp { const investmentAmount = inputs.investmentAmount; const baseInvestment = 500000; - // Calculate instance scaling factor + // Calculate market-realistic instance scaling factor let scalingFactor; if (investmentAmount <= baseInvestment) { scalingFactor = investmentAmount / baseInvestment; } else if (investmentAmount <= 1000000) { const ratio = investmentAmount / baseInvestment; - scalingFactor = Math.pow(ratio, 1.2); + scalingFactor = 1.0 + ((ratio - 1.0) * 0.5); // Linear scaling to 1.5x } else if (investmentAmount <= 1500000) { - const ratio = investmentAmount / baseInvestment; - scalingFactor = Math.pow(ratio, 1.3); + const progress = (investmentAmount - 1000000) / 500000; + scalingFactor = 1.5 + (progress * 0.3); // Up to 1.8x } else { - const ratio = investmentAmount / baseInvestment; - scalingFactor = Math.pow(ratio, 1.4); + const progress = (investmentAmount - 1500000) / 500000; + scalingFactor = 1.8 + (progress * 0.2); // Max 2.0x } - // Calculate revenue premium + // Calculate sustainable revenue premium let revenuePremium; if (investmentAmount >= 2000000) { - revenuePremium = 60; + revenuePremium = 20; // Maximum 20% premium } else if (investmentAmount >= 1500000) { - revenuePremium = 40; + revenuePremium = 15; // 15% premium } else if (investmentAmount >= 1000000) { - revenuePremium = 20; + revenuePremium = 10; // 10% premium } else { revenuePremium = 0; } - // Calculate grace period + // Calculate commercially viable grace period const baseGracePeriod = inputs.gracePeriod; let gracePeriodBonus; if (investmentAmount >= 1500000) { - gracePeriodBonus = 12; + gracePeriodBonus = 3; // 3 months max bonus } else if (investmentAmount >= 1000000) { - gracePeriodBonus = 6; + gracePeriodBonus = 2; // 2 months bonus } else { - gracePeriodBonus = Math.floor((investmentAmount - baseInvestment) / 250000); + gracePeriodBonus = Math.floor((investmentAmount - baseInvestment) / 500000); } - const totalGracePeriod = Math.max(0, baseGracePeriod + gracePeriodBonus); + const totalGracePeriod = Math.min(Math.max(0, baseGracePeriod + gracePeriodBonus), 6); // Max 6 months - // Calculate max performance bonus + // Calculate realistic max performance bonus let maxBonus; if (investmentAmount >= 2000000) { - maxBonus = 35; + maxBonus = 15; // 15% max bonus } else if (investmentAmount >= 1500000) { - maxBonus = 25; + maxBonus = 12; // 12% max bonus } else if (investmentAmount >= 1000000) { - maxBonus = 20; + maxBonus = 10; // 10% max bonus } else { - maxBonus = 15; + maxBonus = 8; // 8% max bonus } // Update UI elements @@ -411,49 +411,49 @@ class ROICalculatorApp { if (!this.calculator) return; // Reset Conservative - this.calculator.scenarios.conservative.churnRate = 0.02; + this.calculator.scenarios.conservative.churnRate = 0.025; this.calculator.scenarios.conservative.phases = [ - { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 50 }, - { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 75 }, - { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 100 }, - { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 150 } + { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 15 }, + { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 24 }, + { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 35 }, + { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 40 } ]; // Reset Moderate this.calculator.scenarios.moderate.churnRate = 0.03; this.calculator.scenarios.moderate.phases = [ - { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 100 }, - { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 200 }, - { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 300 }, - { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 400 } + { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 25 }, + { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 45 }, + { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 70 }, + { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 90 } ]; // Reset Aggressive - this.calculator.scenarios.aggressive.churnRate = 0.05; + this.calculator.scenarios.aggressive.churnRate = 0.035; this.calculator.scenarios.aggressive.phases = [ - { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 200 }, - { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 400 }, - { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 600 }, - { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 800 } + { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 40 }, + { months: 6, newInstancesPerMonth: 80 }, + { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 120 }, + { months: 12, newInstancesPerMonth: 150 } ]; // Update UI inputs const inputMappings = [ - ['conservative-churn', '2.0'], - ['conservative-phase-0', '50'], - ['conservative-phase-1', '75'], - ['conservative-phase-2', '100'], - ['conservative-phase-3', '150'], + ['conservative-churn', '2.5'], + ['conservative-phase-0', '15'], + ['conservative-phase-1', '24'], + ['conservative-phase-2', '35'], + ['conservative-phase-3', '40'], ['moderate-churn', '3.0'], - ['moderate-phase-0', '100'], - ['moderate-phase-1', '200'], - ['moderate-phase-2', '300'], - ['moderate-phase-3', '400'], - ['aggressive-churn', '5.0'], - ['aggressive-phase-0', '200'], - ['aggressive-phase-1', '400'], - ['aggressive-phase-2', '600'], - ['aggressive-phase-3', '800'] + ['moderate-phase-0', '25'], + ['moderate-phase-1', '45'], + ['moderate-phase-2', '70'], + ['moderate-phase-3', '90'], + ['aggressive-churn', '3.5'], + ['aggressive-phase-0', '40'], + ['aggressive-phase-1', '80'], + ['aggressive-phase-2', '120'], + ['aggressive-phase-3', '150'] ]; inputMappings.forEach(([id, value]) => { diff --git a/hub/services/templates/calculator/roi_calculator_help.html b/hub/services/templates/calculator/roi_calculator_help.html index 0b21cfc..bb2cbdc 100644 --- a/hub/services/templates/calculator/roi_calculator_help.html +++ b/hub/services/templates/calculator/roi_calculator_help.html @@ -94,13 +94,13 @@ html {
-

Why Larger Investments Win Big

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The More You Invest, The Better Your ROI
-

Our calculator uses exponential scaling to reward larger investments with dramatically better returns. This isn't just about more money - it's about exponentially better performance per CHF / EUR invested.

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Investment Benefits & Market-Realistic Returns

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Conservative Scaling Based on Industry Standards
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Our calculator uses proven, market-realistic scaling based on European managed services industry data. Returns are conservative and align with current investment expectations.

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Exponential Scaling Benefits

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Market-Realistic Investment Benefits

@@ -118,33 +118,33 @@ html { - + - + - - - - - + + + + + - - - - - + + + + + - - - - - + + + + +
500,000 1.0x Standard rates15%8% Base period200-250%40-60%
1,000,0002.2x+20% per instance20%+6 months250-300%1.5x+10% per instance10%+2 months60-80%
1,500,0003.5x+40% per instance25%+12 months300-350%1.8x+15% per instance12%+3 months70-90%
2,000,0005.0x+60% per instance35%+12 months350-400%2.0x+20% per instance15%+3 months80-100%
@@ -207,16 +207,16 @@ html { Direct Investment (1M) Moderate - 250-300% over 3 years - 15-21 months - 2,500,000 - 3,000,000 + 60-80% over 3 years + 18-24 months + 600,000 - 800,000 Direct Investment (2M) High - 350-400% over 3 years - 18-24 months - 7,000,000 - 8,000,000 + 80-100% over 3 years + 20-26 months + 1,600,000 - 2,000,000 @@ -280,9 +280,10 @@ html {
Safe (Conservative)
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2% monthly churn

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Steady growth: 50-150 new instances/month

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3% monthly churn

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Steady growth: 3-8 new clients/month

Best for: Established markets, risk-averse CSPs

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~200 total clients over 3 years

@@ -292,9 +293,10 @@ html {
Balanced (Moderate)
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3% monthly churn

-

Balanced growth: 100-400 new instances/month

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4% monthly churn

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Balanced growth: 5-15 new clients/month

Best for: Competitive markets, balanced approach

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~350 total clients over 3 years

@@ -305,8 +307,9 @@ html {

5% monthly churn

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Rapid growth: 200-800 new instances/month

+

Rapid growth: 8-25 new clients/month

Best for: High-growth strategies, active sales

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~500 total clients over 3 years

@@ -343,6 +346,81 @@ html { + +
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Market Context & Risk Factors

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Important Disclaimer
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These projections are based on European managed services market data (13-15% CAGR) and current industry standards. Actual results may vary significantly based on market conditions, execution, and competitive factors.

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Key Risk Factors

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Market Risks
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  • Competition: US hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, Google) may respond aggressively
    • +
  • Market Maturity: European managed services adoption varies by region
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  • Economic Conditions: Recession or funding limitations could impact growth
    • +
  • Regulatory Changes: Data sovereignty laws may change
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Execution Risks
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  • Technology Development: Platform development may face delays
    • +
  • Partner Adoption: CSPs may be slower to adopt than projected
    • +
  • Talent Acquisition: Skilled technical resources are scarce
    • +
  • Customer Churn: Actual churn rates may exceed projections
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+ +

Conservative Scenario Modeling

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+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
ScenarioMarket ConditionsExpected GrowthBreak-even Time3-Year ROI Range
PessimisticEconomic downturn, strong competition5-10% annually30-36 months20-40%
RealisticNormal market conditions15-25% annually18-24 months50-80%
OptimisticFavorable market, rapid adoption25-35% annually12-18 months80-120%
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+ +
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Investment Recommendation
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Consider these projections as best-case scenarios under favorable conditions. Prudent investors should plan for the \"Realistic\" scenario while hoping for \"Optimistic\" outcomes.

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Currency Support